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Saturday, September 20, 2008

Game theory and police

Introduction
The exposure of recent U.P.Police recruitment scam as has been brought out in the print and the electronic media, has once again, stirred the deep seated anguish, apathy and frustration. It has evoked mixed response of ridicule, astonishment and shame. It is the police which have brought bad name but let us not disregard the fact that it is the same police which has unearthed the very scam. True, it is the police which have indulged in to those misdeeds but once again, it is the same police which have engineered the process of bringing those black sheep to justice. One side of the police is so frightening, but at the same time, the other side is equally comfortable and assuring. It is high time to ponder over this dichotomy; whether there are two set of police falling on two sides of the divide or police is of the same color working essentially with the same mindset though bringing out different outcome under different socio-political context?
we are what we are
Before analyzing police and its actions let us look at and think about ourselves; what we are? After all police is just a subset of the bigger set comprising of us all. We frown when we see a traffic cop extracting money from a traffic violator but when we ourselves get stuck up having violated a traffic rule, we look for an easy way out and proudly proclaim our victorious deed as to how we bribed a paltry sum to an ever greedy traffic cop. We make rules after very long deliberations and all possible considerations thinking that all the loopholes have been effectively plugged and pat our backs, but when the very rules come our own way, it is we, who again struggle to invent strategies to circumvent them. We tolerate injustice when meted out to others thinking why to bother when it does not concern us but, when we ourselves become victim, we furiously condemn the indifference of others. When our own kith and kin get recruited as a police constable or a sub inspector by questionable means, with our connivance and consent, we justify it by saying that so is the way world functions. When other fellow gets selected the same way, we vehemently protest and cry foul. We never fathom courage to champion any issue and always leave it to others to take the initiative. The others, in turn, do exactly the same, that is, leave it to someone else. So we are left with a thousand issues facing the country and no champion in sight. We always find fault with others and try to prove how others have failed in their job but when someone similarly points fingers at us, we quarrel. When police treats a suspect with third degree we make hue and cry, and rightly so, for human rights violation but, when a suspect is caught who is accused of robbing my house, and police adheres to books this time, I accuse police of soft peddling with criminals. We expect justice here and accept injustice there. In essence we are neither this nor that. We are hard core selfish, always calculative, always playing game desiring always to win at the expense of others. Imagine the plight of the referee and the game when either of the side would not accept the decision declaring opponent, a "winner". We will have allegations and counter allegations, arguments and counter arguments, statements and counter statements, then will follow spate of enquiries, commissions and recommendations to be debated further in the name of justice and fair play. Ultimately, confusion and chaos will prevail leaving the spectators totally baffled as to whether aftermath of the game was the actual game originally intended to be played or otherwise. No one would remember in the end, what the rules of the game were. Might is right or show me the face and I will show you the rule, would guide the activities in the arena. This appears to be hard ground reality. We are, just what we are.
game theory
In our day to day life, in our social interactions, in our business life, we take decisions; make moves in view of the move which the other party is likely to make. There is always the “other”. So, whenever we take a decision, in a way, we play game. It would be worthwhile to have a glance over the game theory:
Game theory can be defined as the study of how people interact and make decisions. This broad definition applies to most of the social sciences, but game theory applies mathematical models to this interaction under the assumption that each person's behavior impacts the well-being of all other participants in the game. These models are often quite simplified abstractions of real-world interactions. While many game theorists certainly enjoy playing games, a "game" is an abstract representation of many serious situations and has a serious purpose.
A major issue with game theory is that is is necessary to make assumptions. Any model of the real world must make simplifying assumptions because the real world is too messy to analyze with any precision. There is a constant tradeoff between realism and solvability. Even if one could write down a model that accurately describes how people make decisions in general, no amount of computers would be able to calculate it.
What assumptions are made normally? The most common ones are:
- rationality (people take whatever actions are likely to make them more happy - and they know what makes them happy), and
- common knowledge (we know that everyone else is trying to make himself or herself as happy as possible, potentially at our expense).
The most widely known example of game theory is probably the prisoner's dilemma: A zero-sum cooperation game that got its name from the following hypothetical situation. Suppose that the police have arrested two people whom they know have committed an armed robbery together. Unfortunately, they lack enough admissible evidence to get a jury to convict. They do, however, have enough evidence to send each prisoner away for two years for theft of the getaway car. The chief inspector now makes the following offer to each prisoner: If you will confess to the robbery, implicating your partner, and she does not also confess, then you'll go free and she'll get ten years. If you both confess, you'll each get 5 years. If neither of you confess, then you'll each get two years for the auto theft.
. The dilemma resides in the fact that each prisoner has a choice between only two options, but cannot make a good decision without knowing what the other one will do[i].

Game theory presupposes that each individual is a rational being which in turn means that each one wants to be happy and would take a decision which would yield maximum return to him and secondly, each one knows that everyone else is thinking the same way. Going back to prisoners dilemma (PD), the dilemma is as follows: if she confesses against him and he does not confess against her, she goes scot free and he lands up in jail for 10 years ,so he should confess against her , and if she is so naïve as not to confess against him and he confesses against her, he goes scot free. Being a rational being, he would like to take such a decision which would give maximum return (scot free in this case or at least she does not go scot free) so he confesses against her. She being equally rational takes a similar decision and confesses against him. As a result, both end up in jail for 10 years. This is defect – defect situation where one perceives getting immediate gain but ultimately both end up being losers. Had both kept quiet (cooperate), both would have got only 2 years.
police and prisoners dilema
As we have discussed, we are hard core selfish, so the selfishness would be main driving force for our rational decisions (yielding maximum return even at the cost of others). Common knowledge (that others are also rational) makes one insecure ( because others are also similarly motivated) and this would make every one suspicious of everyone else (others are likely to defect to derive advantage at our expense). Ultimately, it creates defect - defect situation. Loaded with such a mind set when one joins police, as a police man, he would be no different than we.
Let us examine what amounts to a return for a police man which he or she would strive to maximize. One is organizational gains which are mainly aimed at public at large and other is personal gain in terms of money as well as position and power. If policemen are driven by selfish motives, he thinks maximizing his personal gain even at the expense of organization. He isolates himself both from the organization (from where he earns his bread and butter) and the society (he is recruited to serve).

[i] Inserted from <http://www.valuebasedmanagement.net/methods_game_theory.html> & <http://plato.stanford.edu/entries/game-theory/>

Managing crime - Quantum mechanical way

CRIME CONTROL - QUANTUM MECHANICAL WAY
By

S.P.Srivastava,I.P.S.

An analysis of crime perception and its
management in the light of evolving scientific
thoughts

INTRODUCTION

Plato had portrayed science as an activity with double benefits: science as pure thought
helps mind to find truth, and science as power provides tools for effective action. Gerald
Holton[1], a noted philosopher has observed “The main flaw in this image is that it omits
a third vital aspect: science has always generated an important part of our symbolic
vocabulary and provided some of the metaphysical bases and philosophical orientations
of our ideology. As a consequence, the methods of arguments of science, its conceptions
and its models, have permeated first the intellectual life of the time, then the tenets and
usages of every day life.” In this light it is my endeavor to analyze philosophical orientations and scientific evolutions in the realm of one of the basal instincts of mankind; the crime.

QUEST FOR KNOWLEDGE

Since the advent of civilization, human mind has been preoccupied with the quest for knowledge. There has been a variety of things happening around, which arouse curiosity for understanding and desire to control and manage according to one’s own design. People saw sunrise and set, seasons set in and disappear, natural events, which brought prosperity and happiness and caused havoc also at times. Flood and fire, thunder and storm, cyclone and earthquake, and many more forms of calamities made them shiver and fear.

Human mind tackled this with two broad approaches or two modes of consciousness, which can be termed as rational and intuitive. Rational approach was based on experience one had with the objects and events, and belongs to the realm of intellect laying emphasis on objectivity. It relies on measurable and verifiable facts and their analysis. Objectivity is a crucial factor of this knowledge and, therefore, object interacted with is dissected to measurable and verifiable abstract entities. Intuitive approach, on the other hand, is pure subjective and lies in the realm of faith and emotions. It experiences the object in its entirety in relation to oneself and the whole existence. It demands no explanation.

At the dawn of human evolution, measuring and verifying tools were not developed, invented, or known; events and surroundings were understood from within the realm of faith. Cause of events was attributed to unknown forces of nature, at times personified in the form of God or different deities. Pleased deity showered good harvest and pleasant climate; his wrath caused disaster and calamities. Various religions and sects evolved by basing themselves on particular deity, claiming his superiority, and then by preaching methods on how to avoid wrath and win the blessings of that deity. Faith was the dominant factor that guided human actions and shaped worldview perspective.

UNDERSTANDING OF CRIME

During this period, when faith was the predominant guiding factor, crime was managed with this mindset. Defiance of dictates of the priest and disrespect to the deity was the most heinous of crime. Crime that emerged very early in human history are, therefore, sacrilege or the violations of supernatural taboos. Treason or disloyalty to the group, especially in time of conflict or war, was perhaps the second most universal and among the first few acts to have been recognized as a public wrong. Persons who could establish themselves as the one chosen by, or closest to God, wielded supreme authority to decide the guilt and award punishment.

DETERMINISTIC WORLD VIEW

Gradual invention of refined scientific tools paved the way for seeking rational explanations of events, which were hitherto attributed to whims and fancies of supernatural forces. The world view started changing with frequent discoveries in science, especially in physics and it reached its apex when Newton proposed a mechanical model of the universe. The giant cosmic machine was seen as being completely causal and deterministic. Future of any part of the system could in principle be predicted with absolute certainty if its state at any time was known in all details. The role of supernatural power thus became less relevant and the authority of those "God men" could no longer remain absolute.

CRIME AND CLASSICAL CONCEPT

Formidable success of Newtonian model of mechanistic world waded its way into
every mode of human expression until it became undisputed world view. Determinism became the guiding thought process of philosophers, poets, painters and thinkers. A new approach of perception and interpretation evolved in the realm of interpersonal relationships and societal conduct, including acts of crime. Invention of new machines/engines, which changed the life of men, established the authority of scientific determinism even further .Newly infused rationality and objectivity questioned the very definition of crime and its methodology to deal with it. Not believing in God or not performing a ritual (considered as sacred) could no more be treated as a social crime. It came down to the pedestal of a personal choice. As it became evident that new standpoint is needed to define crime as such, so also need arose for evolving a rational process to establish guilt and inflict uniform punishment.

CRIME MANAGEMENT IN CLASSICAL ERA

Mechanistic world view and its successes proved beyond doubt that the forces of nature can be exploited. It was, therefore, natural to perceive that human conduct can also be influenced. Crime was perceived as an event, caused by its perpetrators under the influence of defined set of circumstances, which could be manipulated. By invoking preventive, punitive and curative measures, this aspect of human conduct can be guided towards a crime-free situation. It envisages an institutionalized framework, which would bring about objectivity. Pursuant to this, it is likely that criminal justice system came into being. Various acts and codes were legislated, wherein several categories of crime were defined, along with procedures and methods to arrive at finding and establishing guilt. Institution of police was enshrined with the responsibility of establishing the guilt. Since establishing the guilt was the first and foremost requirement, police acquired an exceptional status in the entire scheme of things. Being in this pursuit for long, watching the results of their actions by way of people being executed and punished, thus leading to its inevitable impact on the crime environment, the police in particular came to believe that crime was controlled by them.

POLICE SETUP AND CLASSICAL CONCEPT

Police organization gradually developed into a structured and hierarchically-managed
institution with its emphasis on objectivity. Infused with the idea of being able to
control crime, it obviously thought to control its constituent elements as well. It gave
rise to concept of control and supervision in the scheme of managing the organization
as well.

QUANTUM MECHANICAL CONCEPT

As science advanced, invention of sensitive tools of observations enabled scientists to
explore deeper into molecules and atoms and reach out to fundamental particles, with the result that gradually classical theories, hitherto so powerful, started crumbling.

INADEQUACY OF CLASSICAL CONCEPT

Turing wrote in a letter to his mother: “It used to be supposed in science
that if every thing was known about the universe at any particular moment, then
we can predict what it will be through all the future....Further, modern science however
has come to the conclusion that when we are dealing with atoms and electrons, we are
quite unable to know the exact state of them, our instruments being made of atoms and
electrons themselves. The conception then of being able to know the exact state of the
universe then must really break down on the small scale. ”[2]

WAVE PARTICLE DUALITY

While classical physics could explain satisfactorily any phenomenon at the macro level, its inadequacy became more prominent at micro level. For instance, while understanding
the nature of light,.Newton explained it satisfactorily as composed of particles. Sun
light according to him was nothing but incessant rain of light particles of varying colors.
Trouble started with when Young made a double slit experiment, whose result could not be explained with Newtonian concepts. Keep an opaque screen in front of a
light object, say a candle, make a small hole and we see a small light dot on the wall behind the screen, which goes to prove that light is composed of particles. If we make two holes, slightly separated apart in the screen, we do not get two dots behind the screen as expected; rather we observe dark and white bands similar to a train of waves we observe when we drop a stone in a pond, with troughs and s. This is possible only if
light is composed of waves. However, if it is wave, then single slit effect cannot be
explained. So simple an experiment and so intriguing the observations. Great scientists
experimented and re experimented, argued and counter-argued and eventually agreed
upon that light is both. It is composed of discrete particles and is all pervading continuous
wave as well. It is particle when there is single slit and wave when there are two slits. Potentially, it is both at the same time. It will collapse into either of the two, depending on how we are interacting with it (single slit or double).

UNCERTAINTY AND PROBABILITY CONCEPT

It is now settled that every particle has a wave associated with it; each particle actually
exhibits wavelike behavior. Gradually, rigid definiteness of deterministic concept melted and paved the way for probability. Thus if your car is parked in your garage, we say probability density of finding your car in your garage is maximum; however, it being in my garage can not be totally ruled out. It may sound strange for an object like a car but a different rule of game is prevalent at the micro level; here, principle of uncertainty rules the arena. German physicist, Werner Heisenberg, articulated in 1927 that the position and the velocity of an object cannot both be measured exactly at the same time, even in theory. The very concepts of exact position and exact velocity together, in fact, have no meaning in nature. Any attempt to measure precisely the velocity of a subatomic particle, such as an electron, will knock it about in an unpredictable way, so that a simultaneous measurement of its position has no validity. This result has nothing to do with inadequacies in the measuring instruments, the technique or the observer; it arises out of the intimate connection in nature between particles and waves in the realm of subatomic dimensions. A fundamental concept in quantum mechanics is that of randomness, or indeterminacy. In general, the theory predicts only the probability of a certain result.
Einstein, though a father figure in development of quantum concept, however, till end
could not reconcile with this idea of uncertainty, and kept on believing that “God does
not play dice”. Richard Feynman, one of the greatest physicists, has observed “We have
found it of paramount importance that in order to progress we must recognize the
ignorance and leave room for doubt. Scientific knowledge is a body of statements of
varying degrees of certainty-some most unsure, some nearly sure, none absolutely certain.”[3]

CRIME CONTROL AND QUANTUM CONCEPT

Presently, our mind is obsessed with the thought of controlling the crime which is a legacy of deterministic era . It is out of tune with quantum concept which has shaken the very determinism out of its ground. There are in fact innumerable factors and circumstances, both macro and micro, which give rise to crime psychosis. Because of inherent uncertainty, the efforts made to manipulate these factors may not yield desired consequences. Things to be controlled and one who controls, affects each other. In fact, both are part of the same process. The "Controller" is controlled as well in the process of controlling is transformed into a different "Controller" side by side as the "To be controlled" situation takes up a different shape. The "To be controlled" situation has infinite potentialities (like a particle has dual potentiality) and will collapse in a particular way depending on how "Controller" interacts with the situation - looking from the controller point of view. And from "To be controlled” point of view, "Controller" has also infinite potential and will collapse in a particular way depending upon how "To be controlled" has interacted.
Paul Davis[4] has described process theology as “Process thought is an attempt to view the world not as a collection of objects or even as a set of events, but as a process with a definite directionality". World is a community of interdependent beings like a living organism rather than a collection of cogs in a machine. The example of kicking a stone and dog would be more relevant to put the point across[5]. When you kick a stone, it will react to the kick according to a linear chain of cause and effect. Its behavior can be calculated by applying basic laws of Newtonian mechanics. When you kick a dog the situation is quite different. Though a mechanistic interpretation was attempted to predict the behavior (Pavlov) of the dog but it could not satisfactorily account for certain observed variations. The dog will respond with structural changes according to its own nature. Resulting behavior is generally unpredictable. Living organism behaves the quantum way.

QUANTUM CONCEPT - CONTROL TO MANAGEMENT

As the quantum concept of worldview engulfs the thought process, perceptions
and responses will undergo gradual transformation. This is inevitable. It may be noticed initially merely as a background noise but later its note and tune is bound to crystallize into a clear melody .In order to be prepared and avoid “future-shock”, it would be required of us to be in synergy with the great cosmic design. If two entities ("Controller" and "To be controlled") are no more distinct, rather are part of same process, the system would demand them to cooperate and contribute symbiotically in order to enrich and facilitate the process for harmonious evolution.

QUANTUM MESSAGE - COOPERATE AND CONTRIBUTE

Quantum message is loud and clear. Crime, or for that matter any aspect of a living
organism like the human society can, at the best be managed with symbiotic-dynamism rather than be controlled by kicking - stone. It has to be a collective effort in which he/she must contribute his/her professional worth in order to achieve crime-free environment and cooperate with whomsoever he/she interacts in achieving this objective. Quantum mechanics also establishes the theory of dependent origination. Cause and effect is not a one-time phenomenon, taking place in isolation here and there. It is part of cyclic chain; number of causes cumulatively gives rise to an effect, which in turn acts as a cause to give rise to another effect, this process goes on and on. Crime situation is an event or an effect, caused by numerous factors. Since we cannot know all the factors (limited by uncertainty principle), it is not possible to fully control them. It is my hypothesis, therefore, that "Crime" cannot be "Controlled" in the classical sense. Any effort in that direction would be but a feudal arrogance - a deterministic drag, which has led the nation to fall in to deep slumber of decided opinion; a root cause of all those deformities, which have seeped slowly into this arm of criminal justice system. Yes, it can be managed and can be managed effectively. It calls for a synergic change, a paradigm sift in the mindset for smooth cooperation and effective contribution - a quantum mechanical requirement. After all, nature does not act against itself.

CRIME MANAGEMENT MODULE

Any number of module can be devised depending upon the local conditions, however, whatever module is formulated, it must include following essential steps:

Accept and acknowledge the limitations, which are inherent to the system.
Define a clear-cut role vis-à-vis that of other agencies (viz. Judiciary, Legislation, Media, NGOs etc.) engaged in furtherance of the common objective (i.e., peace and harmony - a basic ingredient for overall prosperity).
Respect each other's role and allow full freedom of action to each within their respective professional confines.
Draw a professional boundary for action; below which one should not perform and beyond which one must not transgress.
Expect unexpected failures, as there is always a scope for enhancing professional excellence and believe that other agencies are equally conscious of their professional excellence - a backbone of cooperation.

[1] Ideas in Science-Edited by Oscar H.Fidell, A Readers Enrichment Series, Published by Washington
Square Press,Inc.

[2] The great philosophers - edited by Ray Monk and Frederic Raphael

[3] Universe in a nutshell by Stephens Hawking

[4] The mind of God by Paul Davis

[5] The Hidden Connections by Fritjof capra